This month, only 6 of the top 25 wallets have an edge you could copy.

The Evidence column is a different question from the verdict. Verdict says what kind of trader a wallet is; evidence says how much we trust the fetch it was computed from. Verified means the fetch is complete; Provisional means the verdict stands but a known gap (a truncated fill log, an unresolved completeness measurement) means it could move; Insufficient data always applies where the verdict itself is “Insufficient evidence.” A wallet can be genuinely copyable on a Provisional fetch — that is why the two labels are printed separately rather than folded into one word. Full rule and every wallet’s derivation: the evidence-confidence gate →

Why so many “Insufficient evidence.” We only stamp “Real edge” when a wallet’s profit reconstructs from its own fills — and only when the rebuilt figure lands within about ±15% of the displayed profit. A book that over-reconstructs (145%, 164%) fails that test just as one that under-reconstructs does. On the biggest, most-active books our reconstruction can’t yet close the ledger either way — so rather than issue a confident-but-wrong verdict, we say so. That’s the whole product: we would rather refuse than guess. Coverage rises as the engine improves — and every wallet check stays free.

Check our work. The reconstruction workpaper publishes every wallet’s error for this cycle — the 8 we scored, the 15 we refused with their verbatim rationales, the 2 we classified without a usable PnL, and the pooled figure our critics would compute. Median gap on the 10 wallets we claim — a set chosen by market and fill count, before any verdict, and not the same set as the 8 we scored above: 5.1 points; our reconstructions sum to 98.7% of the displayed dollars.

What we haven’t proved. On 2026-07-16 we found that our fetch for swisstony (rank 02) had captured 1.7% of the at-least-888,820 fills we have since measured for the 30-day window this page reports on — and 0.5% of its lifetime book — while every completeness signal we own read green. Rebuilt 2026-07-18: swisstony’s fill and market counts above are now the most complete total we have obtained (at least 888,820 fills, 16,258 markets — provenance in u1-swisstony-provenance.json); its reconstruction percentage and mechanism split are not rebuilt and remain unproven, for the reason logged in UNRECONCILED.md U1. Re-fetched 2026-07-18 (U2): the other 24 wallets were measured the same way. Two more (maz26, rank 03, and 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3, rank 07) were already flagged by our own engine as capped and are now rebuilt the same way as swisstony; a third (0x076daa87, rank 17) had the identical every-signal-read-green failure swisstony did, at a smaller but still severe 5.3× undercount, also rebuilt. Fill counts for 16 of the remaining 21 wallets landed within the ±15% fills tolerance this page promises (market counts were tracked but not gated — several sit wider; see the U2 ledger), and their published fill counts stand as measured. For 5, our 30-day re-fetch counted fewer fills than published — which our own engine’s fetch is not time-scoped to 30 days in the first place, so a shortfall there does not prove either side wrong; those 5 are carried as an open question, not a pass. None of this moved any verdict, the “6 of 25 copyable” count, or the frozen workpaper headline. Full per-wallet ledger, method and provenance in the standing unreconciled-items table — U1 for swisstony, U2 for the rest.