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Archive · Historical researchJuly 2026 ProgramRetired August 26, 2026

This page preserves a wallet result from MSR Decode's July 2026 leaderboard-copyability study. The program is historical and is not a current recurring rating cycle. The original reconstruction, classification and disclosed limitations remain preserved below.

Current MSR Research →

MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №10 of 25

muchobliged

0x095fbca2e0eaf0c9841005135427e1e0117190b2

$2.0M · 30-day displayed profit

Real edge

This wallet passed the July 2026 screen for a directional trading pattern and reconstruction agreement. The screen did not test whether another trader could obtain the same prices or results.

Copyable — provisional

Provisional

Selection-time fetch measured 12.1 points of displayed profit short by the corrected re-fetch of 2026-07-26 (register row U8). The frozen cycle keeps the original figures, with the correction published beside them. See the evidence gate →

Polymarket displayed
$2.03M
MSR reconstructed
$1.79M
88.1% of displayed

Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle is published in full in the reconstruction workpaper.

Directional
100%
Post-resolution
0%
Bilateral (two-sided)
0%

For this incomplete-retrieval record, these mechanism percentages describe the original partial sample and were not recomputed from later counts.

September 20, 2026 clarification. The activity was classified as directional, although trading was concentrated. A known data gap keeps the evidence provisional, and the Ledger is a completed historical simulation.

Historical July rationale: 88% reconstruction; concentration flag, still directional.

6,296 fills · 20 markets · avg buy $0.541 · top market: France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5

muchobliged cleared the historical screen. Read the completed historical simulation and its assumptions in the Ledger.

Discuss a scoped investigation of a wallet, market, or group of accounts. For funds, platforms & compliance teams →

This page is part of MSR Decode's historical July 2026 research program.