PREDICTION-MARKET FORENSIC RESEARCH & INVESTIGATIONS
Prediction markets, reconstructed from the underlying record.
MSR Decode independently reconstructs trading activity, PnL, market mechanics, settlement, market data and fund flows to answer consequential questions about prediction markets. Our work supports legal, compliance, institutional research and diligence teams, while our public research systematically tests the market structures behind those questions.
MSR Finding Record
Displayed volume vs. net economic cost
Two law-enforcement announcements tested for pre-public trading — none found. The displayed volume traces to the same two counterparties trading against each other, not independent directional participation. Read the case →
Worked with Reporters at
Selected forensic work.
Different questions. Different outcomes.
Material corrections to published findings are dated and remain visible rather than being silently overwritten.
Questions the underlying record can answer.
Wallets and accounts, individual markets, market cohorts, trading claims, reported PnL and volume, fund flows, and data integrity. Every engagement starts as a question, not a conclusion.
- Does this reported PnL survive complete economic reconstruction?Cost basis, fees and settlement rebuilt fill by fill
- What mechanism actually generated this market’s reported activity?Directional, arbitrage, market-making, reward-farming, or churn
- Did unusual trading precede the relevant public information?Position timing against the market’s own clock
- Is an apparent relationship between accounts supported by transaction evidence?Funding paths tested against a stated null model
- Is an anomaly real, or caused by incomplete or misleading venue data?Our own pipeline is the null hypothesis
- What does the record establish — and what remains unproven?“Insufficient evidence” is a finding we publish
Where the capabilities above tend to get used.
Legal, Disputes & Investigations
Analytical support when prediction-market records become relevant to a dispute, investigation or regulatory question.
Institutional Research & Diligence
Bespoke market-structure and forensic research for investment research and diligence.
Market Integrity & Compliance
Evidence-first analysis of unusual activity, market data, settlement and surveillance questions.
How a finding earns its conclusion.
The same ten-step standard on every investigation, in order. Each step is documented on the methodology page.
- 01 Question
- 02 Provenance
- 03 Semantics
- 04 Completeness
- 05 Reconstruction
- 06 Alternatives
- 07 Materiality
- 08 Conclusion
- 09 Reproduction
- 10 Corrections
See the work product.
An illustrative MSR forensic memorandum shows how a bounded question moves from source records to reconstruction, alternative explanations, finding and limitations.
Built entirely from the published bnb-5min.html case — not a client engagement.
Evidence of process
MSR's public record makes the analytical process inspectable through disclosed methodology, reproducible workpapers, dated corrections, source-linked case records and published null findings.
The mandate is what the record supports, not a predetermined outcome: established, not reproduced, alternative explanation identified, not established, or data-limited are all valid, equally published findings.
Secondary: MSR filed a public comment on a CFTC data-reporting rulemaking — docket entry ↗ — engagement with the field, not independent validation of MSR's work.
Tell us what you are trying to establish.
MSR reviews the question, available records, scope and appropriate work product before accepting an engagement.
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