Prediction-market economic verification
MSR Decode independently reconstructs prediction-market trading activity, reported profits, volume, fees, incentives, and settlements. We test financial claims against underlying records and document what the evidence supports, what it contradicts, and what remains uncertain.
Defined-scope research·Independent conclusions·Evidence and limitations documented
01 / Review applications
Does a reported profit, wallet ranking, market-growth figure, or trading return survive reconstruction from the underlying records?
What economic mechanism generated observed activity, and what does the evidence actually establish?
These are primary use cases, not a claim that every market or account can be reconstructed.
02 / Public research
$917,311.53
Realized profit confirmed before rebates
The July 17, 2026 session produced $917,311.53 before rebates; the claimed 23-of-24 win rate did not hold. The monetary reconstruction shows 21 positive and three negative markets.
One wallet, one historical session, 24 examined markets. The published case and sample memorandum contain additional method qualifications. Two open source-artifact items remain: U13 concerns four descriptive ledger labels; U14 concerns a reported execution price that does not match the published ledger. The dollar figures agree to the displayed cent.
From October 2025 through April 2026, reconstructed annualized volume grew 237.7% at $1 face value and 170.4% at execution prices.
These measures count different dollar amounts; that difference alone does not imply fabricated trades. The later June–August combo-mix analysis is separate and does not explain the earlier growth gap.
150of150
Selected markets reconciled
Recovering omitted maker-side fills resolved the selected false-positive signals across the tested markets.
The test covered 50 selected markets from each of three wallets. It does not establish the same API behavior for all markets, wallets, or historical flags. Independent on-chain sender tracing covered the flagship example, not all 150 markets.
Each capsule links to its full source record, methods, and current qualifications. A capsule is a route into the evidence, not a substitute for it.
03 / Engagement process
Describe the wallet, market, financial figure, claim, or activity that needs evaluation.
MSR assesses source availability, data completeness, rights and permissions, analytical boundaries, expected deliverables, and the proposed fee.
MSR delivers the agreed work product: a supported conclusion, reconstruction, source schedule, alternative explanations, and limitations.
ECONOMIC RECONSTRUCTION / PUBLIC RECORD
04 / Example work product
Illustrative work product based on public MSR research — not a client engagement.
The sample memorandum shows how a defined finding connects the executive conclusion to the reconstruction, alternatives considered, source schedule, and limits of the record.
05 / Start a conversation
Tell us what you need to establish. MSR will review the initial question, assess the available evidence and scope, and explain the appropriate next step.
Request a Review An inquiry is not an accepted engagement or a promise of a particular finding. Work begins under separately agreed terms.
