MSR Decode Discuss a matter
ResearchMSR Decode

The research hub.

MSR Decode's public research is not a side project — it develops the reusable methods, infrastructure and specialist market knowledge that strengthen commissioned investigations. Findings are dated; corrections are appended, never erased.

Prediction-Market Integrity Research

An empirical map of where prediction-market integrity breaks down, where it survives scrutiny, and where the available evidence cannot yet decide the question — tested systematically across defined market universes, not one wallet at a time.

Explore the eight research domains →

Research Notes

Shorter-form research notes, published as they’re completed.

Read research notes →

Methods & Archive

Methodology, workpapers, corrections, historical research and public research tools. MSR Decode’s first published research program — the July 2026 wallet-copyability audit — is retired but remains permanently public here.

Explore Methods & Archive

Current methods

  • Methodology — the ten-step general investigative standard applied to every question MSR Decode takes on.
  • Research archive & corrections — published research, material revisions and dated corrections. Material corrections remain visible rather than being silently overwritten.

Workpapers

Historical research — July 2026 Program · retired August 26, 2026

25 wallets audited under the published July methodology — 6 passed the published July screen, 15 refused for insufficient evidence.

  • Scorecard — the published July 2026 leaderboard audit of the highest-earning wallets on Polymarket, scored against a published verdict rule.
  • Prospective Copyability Ledger — forward-tested outcomes on every “Real edge” verdict, published at fixed checkpoints, gains and losses alike.

Public research tools

  • Wallet checker — paste a Polymarket wallet and see the fill-by-fill reconstruction yourself, as a historical replay over the published July cohort.