The research hub.

Recent investigations, with their evidence and qualifications.

• When Polymarket leaderboard profit diverged from trading profitOct 7, 2026 · 9 min readFive cases from May through September 2026 show payouts, historical values and unsupported credits entering public profit rankings. The evidence supports distinct accounting problems and leaves some ranking values unexplained.Read the report →
• Paired Polymarket wallets traded opposite outcomes and moved through markets togetherOct 5, 2026 · 8 min readIn a review of 97 selected XFM profiles, 40 of 47 complete pairs entered the same markets in the same order. Their opposite positions reveal a repeatable trading routine, while its economic purpose remains unresolved.Read the report →
• An account named in a Polymarket payout proposal bought more shares 14 seconds laterSep 27, 2026 · 3 min readAn account named in a Bitcoin market’s payout proposal bought more No shares 14 seconds later. Its 61,713-pUSD surplus came from its full trading history in that market.Read the report →

Browse all case reports →

Short research notes, published as they’re completed.

• A federal insider-trading complaint, reconciled against the venue recordAug 18, 2026
• The McDonald’s bet: a staged “$100,000 win” checked against the real marketAug 16, 2026
• The NYC Council’s staged-trade claim — what public records can testAug 16, 2026

Read research notes →

Public research that examines how prediction-market records, trading patterns, and venue data hold up under review. It records what the evidence supports, what it does not, and what remains unresolved across more than one observed case.

Explore the eight research domains →

Methodology, workpapers, corrections, historical research and public research tools. MSR Decode’s first published research program — the July 2026 wallet-copyability audit — is retired but remains permanently public here.

Current methods

• Methodology — the ten-step general investigative standard applied to every question MSR Decode takes on.
• Research archive & corrections — published research, material revisions and dated corrections. Material corrections remain visible rather than being silently overwritten.