Defined-scope specialist service
MSR Verify examines defined financial and trading claims in prediction markets. We establish the underlying record, reconstruct the relevant economics, evaluate alternative explanations, and document what the evidence does and does not establish.
Evidence-led analysis·Bounded scope·Findings independent of outcome
01 / Questions in scope
Reconstruct a reported result, ranking, volume figure, or bounded trading period.
Establish what records show about a defined activity pattern and test material alternatives.
Feasibility depends on record availability, completeness, access rights, and the question being tested. A review may conclude that a claim is established, not reproduced, has an alternative explanation, is not established, or is data-limited.
02 / Defined scope
Reconstruct realized outcomes for one wallet over an agreed historical trading session, reconcile fills and cash flows, account for fees and rebates, and evaluate whether a stated profit and win-rate claim match the records.
Scope boundaries identify the wallets, markets, time window, accounting basis, available sources, and material exclusions. Multiple accounts or markets may require an extended investigation.
The expected output is an evidence-backed answer, not a particular verdict.
03 / Engagement options
Initial inquiry and basic scope triage are free. Fees and deliverables are agreed before work is accepted.
$1,500–$2,500
Assess available records, completeness, and whether a defined question can be tested. Provide a bounded feasibility finding and possible next steps.
$5,000–$10,000
Reconstruct one agreed question or bounded activity set, evaluate material alternatives, and document the economic finding.
$12,500+
More complex multi-market, multi-account, incentive, funding, or cross-source analysis.
By agreement
Human-led recurring analysis of a precisely defined universe or set of triggers.
Prices are indicative planning ranges, not binding quotes. Scope, fees, sources, delivery, and permitted uses are confirmed before acceptance. A paid Feasibility Review is a separate analytical deliverable when evidence access warrants one; not every engagement needs that phase. It is not a promise of a complete reconstruction. A Verification Review is not a universal audit or a guarantee of complete source coverage. There is no checkout or automatic purchase.
04 / How an engagement works
Share a public description of the question and any accessible source link. Do not send privileged or highly confidential material through the form.
Discuss access, source reliability, rights, limits, deliverables, timing, fee, attribution, and permitted use. If accepted, terms are agreed in writing.
MSR reconstructs the bounded record and delivers the agreed documented finding, including material alternatives and limitations.
ECONOMIC RECONSTRUCTION / PUBLIC RECORD
05 / Sample work product
Illustrative work product based on public MSR research — not a client engagement.
The example shows an executive finding tied to reconstructed economics, alternative explanations, source material, and open limits.
06 / Institutional applications
MSR Decode can support research institutions, market-data firms, investment teams, and specialist advisory businesses when a specific prediction-market claim requires deeper economic reconstruction, source validation, or independent methodological challenge.
MSR’s work may complement an organization’s existing data collection and analytical infrastructure. Scope, attribution, confidentiality, reuse rights, and analytical independence are agreed for each engagement.
Institutional research applications07 / Boundaries and practical questions
No. MSR Verify is a defined-scope research service. It does not provide a statutory or licensed financial audit opinion, regulatory certification, or guarantee of completeness.
Only where the available evidence supports that conclusion. A trading pattern alone does not establish identity, common control, intent, or manipulation. Findings can be positive, negative, inconclusive, or limited by unavailable evidence.
No. Website inquiries do not create an attorney-client relationship or automatically establish confidentiality. Commercial confidentiality is governed by written engagement terms.
Only where source access and licensing permit. Third-party data redistribution rights are assessed as part of scope.
No. Recurring Specialist Review is human-led analysis of an agreed universe or defined triggers. It is not an automated surveillance platform or perpetual live claim-checker.
No. MSR does not provide individualized investment advice, custody funds, route trades, or accept compensation linked to trading volume.
08 / Initial inquiry
The initial inquiry and basic scope triage are free. MSR will review the question and explain an appropriate next step.
