About
MSR Decode
MSR Decode is a specialist prediction-market forensic research and investigations firm, founded in 2026. We reconstruct trading activity, market mechanics and fund flows from the underlying record, and test claims against it — publishing what survives, what doesn’t, and what remains unproven. MSR runs public, evidence-first research programs with dated corrections, and takes on commissioned investigations for legal, compliance, and institutional research teams.
Founder
A published trading record is a claim, not a receipt. I reconstruct the underlying activity until the numbers reconcile — or until the record shows why they cannot.
What makes this different
Generic blockchain-analytics tools can trace a transaction. Traditional market-microstructure specialists understand conventional trading. MSR Decode's specialization sits at the intersection the two rarely cover together: prediction-market contract design, transaction-level records, venue-specific data semantics, settlement mechanics, market microstructure, and the economic incentives a binary outcome structure creates. That intersection — not blockchain forensics alone, and not market microstructure alone — is what a prediction-market question actually requires.
How MSR works
Every investigation follows MSR’s disclosed methodology: define the question, establish data provenance, reconstruct the mechanism, test alternative explanations, and state the finding with its limitations attached. Analytical decisions stay independent of who commissions the work, and material changes are corrected on the record rather than silently overwritten. Current public examples are available in case work.
Current practice & institutional application
Today MSR Decode investigates prediction-market claims, wallets and accounts, market activity, PnL and volume, fund flows, unusual trading chronology, data and API integrity, market mechanics, and what public records can and cannot establish. Wallet copyability remains a historical research program — the one that built the method — not the firm’s defining purpose. MSR publishes “insufficient evidence” as a finding rather than filling gaps with inference: where the public record will not support a call, the relevant page says so.
Legal, compliance, and institutional research and diligence teams commission this same method for a defined question; see Capabilities.
Founder background
I founded MSR Decode in 2026. Before that I traded prediction markets on Polymarket myself, from 2024 to 2026 — which is where the gap between a displayed profit and a reconstructable one stopped being an abstraction. A leaderboard figure tells you somebody won. It does not tell you whether the mechanism behind the win is one that survives the published copyability screen, and nothing published alongside it let you check. Answering that question, in public, with the workpaper attached, is what the firm is for.
MSR Decode is operated by Main Street Research LLC and based in Hong Kong. It does not route trades, earn commission on volume, or hold customer funds. Why that matters, and how public research differs from commissioned work, is set out in the independence policy.
That policy covers what the firm earns; my own trading is covered too. Relevant personal trading interests are disclosed and handled under MSR’s conflicts and recusal policy — the standing rule, rather than a snapshot of today’s positions that would quietly go stale.
Origins of the research program
MSR Decode began with the observation that a displayed prediction-market number can look authoritative while leaving crucial questions unanswered. The initial July 2026 wallet-copyability project forced the firm to solve, in public, with the workpaper attached: endpoint semantics, data completeness, PnL reconstruction, settlement accounting, market structure, fund flows, alternative explanations, and evidentiary limits. Those problems became the foundation of the broader prediction-market forensic method described above.
Historical research references
- Historical research
- July 2026 Scorecard · Prospective ledger · Workpapers
Media / source information
MSR provides routine editorial support to journalists working on an active story, without charge. For reporters: what MSR can verify from public records — and what public data cannot establish — is set out on For journalists. In August 2026 I assisted Financial Times journalist Anna Gross with Polymarket fund-flow analysis for her reporting (public acknowledgment).
Topics I can discuss on the record, with the underlying workpaper attached:
- Prediction-market data semantics and completeness — how a truncated fetch or an undocumented API default silently changes a published number, and what we do when the record comes back short.
- PnL and economic reconstruction — rebuilding cost basis, fees and settlement fill by fill, and why a displayed profit and a reconstructed one can disagree.
- Market structure and reported-volume mechanics — order-book dynamics, redemption arbitrage, and market-making signatures, and how displayed volume can diverge from independent directional capital commitment.
- Wallet and account activity — including, as one example, telling a replicable trading edge from an artifact of market structure.
- Tracing the movement of funds across prediction-market accounts — what deposits, transfers and redemptions can be followed on public rails, and where the trail stops.
- Unusual trading chronology — position timing tested against a market’s own public clock.
- Market-integrity questions and alternative explanations — testing an apparent anomaly against mundane mechanisms before any other conclusion.
- What public records can and cannot establish — including where a funding trail stops, and why we do not attribute real-world identity, common control, or intent without corroborating evidence in the relevant case.
- Methodological failures and corrections — our own, dated and published, same as anyone else’s.
I do not offer investment advice, forecasts, or individualized recommendations, and I do not comment on where a market is heading. I do not claim proof of intent, common control, identity, insider trading, or manipulation without corroborating evidence in the relevant case.
Verification details
For editors, source directories and platform reviewers, the details on this page in one block:
- Name
- Chris Park
- Role
- Founder, MSR Decode
- Organization
- MSR Decode — operated by Main Street Research LLC
- Location
- Hong Kong
- ceo@msrdecode.com
- Website
- msrdecode.com
- linkedin.com/in/chrispark-msr
- X
- x.com/msrdecode
- Published work
- Case work · Integrity research · Methodology · Research archive · Independence policy
Contact
Institutional inquiries. MSR reviews the question, the available records, scope and the appropriate work product before accepting an engagement.
Direct / media correspondence. ceo@msrdecode.com