Chris Park

What I work on

MSR Decode is an independent forensic research desk for prediction-market wallets. Each cycle takes the highest-earning wallets on Polymarket’s public leaderboard and runs every one of them through the same decode: pull the fill history from the public endpoints, rebuild cost basis fill by fill, decompose the profit by market and by mechanism, and reconcile the reconstruction against the displayed figure before anything about it is explained. That ordering is the method, not a disclaimer — an explanation attached to a gap nobody has closed is the failure mode this desk exists to avoid.

The output is a verdict on whether the mechanism behind the profit is replicable by a follower — directional edge, arbitrage, market-making, reward farming, or one lucky ticket. It is backward-looking classification of public data, not a prediction and not advice. “Insufficient evidence” is one of the verdicts we publish rather than a gap we quietly fill: where the public record will not support a call, the scorecard says so on the wallet’s own row.

The method and its measured error, the append-only forward ledger, the independence policy and a running log of our own corrections are all public. I write every finding that carries my name and retain editorial control over it.

Background

I founded MSR Decode in 2026. Before that I traded prediction markets on Polymarket myself, from 2024 to 2026 — which is where the gap between a displayed profit and a reconstructable one stopped being an abstraction. A leaderboard figure tells you somebody won. It does not tell you whether the mechanism behind the win is one a follower could reproduce, and nothing published alongside it let you check. Answering that question, in public, with the workpaper attached, is what the desk is for.

MSR Decode is operated by Main Street Research LLC and based in Hong Kong. The desk sells research — forensic audits, market-forensics briefs, and monitoring — and it does not route trades, earn commission on volume, or hold customer funds. Why that matters, and what we refuse, is set out in the independence policy.

I hold no open prediction-market positions of my own. That policy covers what the desk earns; this line covers what the person writing the findings trades — and if it ever changes, it will say so here.

What I can speak to

Topics I can discuss on the record, with the underlying workpaper attached:

• Why a leaderboard PnL figure and a reconstructed one disagree — rewards, rebates, paired entries and settlement flows, and which of them a follower cannot reproduce.
• Telling a replicable edge from an artifact of market structure — what separates a trader you could follow from one whose profit depends on a position you cannot occupy.
• What public on-chain data can and cannot establish — including where a funding trail stops, and why we do not attribute real-world identity from it.
• Data-completeness limits of public trading APIs — how a truncated fetch silently changes a published number, and what we do when the record comes back short.
• Correcting our own published work — including a retraction of one of our own findings after the reconciliation went against us.

I do not offer investment advice, forecasts, or individualized recommendations, and I do not comment on where a market is heading.

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