Research NotesMSR Decode
Research Notes.
This page keeps stable original versions of standalone research notes. Social platforms may distribute a note, while its source version, evidence, and later corrections remain here. Each note states its scope, data snapshot, what the evidence establishes, and what it does not.
Published notes
- A federal insider-trading complaint, reconciled against the venue record — Forensic Note 03 · Aug 18, 2026
The CFTC’s complaint against Gannon Van Dyke states figures as approximations and reported minimum amounts. The note tests the venue trading record and identifies remaining off-platform limits. - The McDonald’s bet: a staged “$100,000 win” checked against the real market — Forensic Note 02 · Aug 16, 2026
The WSJ reported that a creator’s viral Polymarket win was staged and that more than 50 real accounts made the same bet and lost. The retrieved record contains 48 wallets; two recorded tiny positive round trips, but it does not support the advertised $100,000 win. The note explains the record’s coverage limits. - The NYC Council’s staged-trade claim — what public records can test — Breaking Forensic Note · Aug 16, 2026
NYC Council opened a public marketing-practices review of four prediction-market platforms on Aug 12, 2026; MSR Decode has not independently reconstructed any specific wallet, trade or video named in the reporting that preceded it.
Related forensic work
Selected investigations using the same reconstruction standard are available in Case Work.
The four formats
- Breaking Forensic Note — Fast response to an active story; one narrow factual question. Core question: What does the available public record establish?
- Reconstruction Note — A deeper account, wallet, market, or flow reconstruction. Core question: What actually happened, transaction by transaction?
- Data Note — A quantitative pattern across a defined population. Core question: How common, large or persistent is the observed phenomenon?
- Method Note — A technical discovery, limitation, or data-quality issue. Core question: What can this data source reliably establish?
The fixed structure
- What happened.
- What is being claimed.
- What we can independently test.
- What the evidence establishes.
- What remains unproven.
Who these are for
Research Notes are short-form empirical and methodological research for institutional users, researchers and journalists alike. Correspondence: ceo@msrdecode.com.