Research NotesMSR Decode
Research Notes.
Standalone research notes originate on this page under stable URLs. Social platforms distribute a note; the canonical version, its evidence, and any later corrections live here. Every note states its scope, its data snapshot, what the evidence establishes, and what it does not.
The four formats
- Breaking Forensic Note — Fast response to an active story; one narrow factual question. Core question: What does the available public record establish?
- Reconstruction Note — A deeper account, wallet, market, or flow reconstruction. Core question: What actually happened, transaction by transaction?
- Data Note — A quantitative pattern across a defined population. Core question: How common, large or persistent is the observed phenomenon?
- Method Note — A technical discovery, limitation, or data-quality issue. Core question: What can this data source reliably establish?
The fixed structure
- What happened.
- What is being claimed.
- What we can independently test.
- What the evidence establishes.
- What remains unproven.
Published notes
- A federal insider-trading complaint, reconciled against the venue record — Forensic Note 03 · Aug 18, 2026
The CFTC’s complaint against Gannon Van Dyke states its figures as approximations and floors. We pulled the named wallet’s complete Polymarket record: the approximations hold, the floors are exceeded, and press-reported prosecution figures reproduce to the dollar. - The McDonald’s bet: a staged “$100,000 win” checked against the real market — Forensic Note 02 · Aug 16, 2026
The WSJ reported that a creator’s viral Polymarket win was staged and that more than 50 real accounts made the same bet and lost. Rebuilt fill by fill: 48 wallets, none profited, and the trade shown would exceed the market’s entire yes-side volume many times over. - The NYC Council’s staged-trade claim — what public records can test — Breaking Forensic Note · Aug 16, 2026
NYC Council opened a public marketing-practices review of four prediction-market platforms on Aug 12, 2026; MSR Decode has not independently reconstructed any specific wallet, trade or video named in the reporting that preceded it.
Related forensic work
Selected investigations using the same reconstruction standard are available in Case Work.
Who these are for
Research Notes are short-form empirical and methodological research for institutional users, researchers and journalists alike. Correspondence: ceo@msrdecode.com.