Capabilities
MSR Verify tests financial and trading claims in prediction markets against underlying records, reconstructs the relevant economics, evaluates alternatives, and documents findings with their limits. Broader forensic investigation, market-integrity and institutional-research applications remain available by agreement.
A commissioned investigation starts with a defined question, not a predetermined allegation. MSR does not route trades, hold custody, or offer individualized investment advice; a negative or data-limited outcome is a valid finding.
Verdict-neutral Confidentiality, permitted use and information-handling obligations are defined in the written engagement terms before work begins. Analytical conclusions remain independent. We document findings and their limitations consistently, including when the evidence does not support a claim.
Eight classes of question MSR Decode can investigate. Each capability names its method and its limitations — MSR does not claim universal capability, and scope is confirmed before an engagement is accepted. See what the resulting work product can include.
Where the capabilities above tend to get used.
Independent reconstruction and analytical support when prediction-market trading becomes relevant to a dispute, investigation or regulatory question.
Evidence-first analysis of market activity, data quality, settlement design, surveillance questions and unusual trading behavior.
The external market evidence for an internal investigation. Your team holds the internal record; MSR reconstructs the external trading record so the two can be examined together.
Is reported activity economically meaningful, and how reliable is the venue data behind it? For funds, prop desks and diligence teams evaluating a specific claim.
Every engagement is evidence-first research on public and venue records: a finding with its method and limitations attached, never a predetermined conclusion or an individualized investment recommendation. Availability, delivery, and permitted downstream use are reviewed case by case and may depend on data access, required permissions, and applicable legal or contractual constraints.
A defined question involving a wallet or account, a market, an account cohort, a transaction history, a claim, a PnL figure, a funding path, or a related prediction-market record. Deliverable: an evidence-backed finding, the reconstruction and methodology behind it, relevant calculations, its limitations, and reproduction material where appropriate.
Legal, compliance, research & diligence teams evaluating a specific claim
A broader review of a defined market, event, or account cohort: trading concentration, chronology, economic churn, circular or offsetting activity, reported-volume mechanics, market structure, account behavior, alternative explanations, and data-quality limitations. We do not promise a manipulation or insider-trading finding — only what the evidence independently supports, with appropriate corroboration.
We do not attribute identity, common control, or intent from trading similarity alone. When the public trail stops, the workpaper says so — and states what remains unanswered.
Platforms · compliance teams · legal teams · institutional research teams
Human-led recurring analysis of a precisely defined universe or set of triggers. It creates a documented review trail when the agreed triggers warrant investigation. Findings, contrary evidence, and no-finding outcomes are documented under the same standard.
Risk & compliance teams · platforms with listing or integrity duties
When a market metric, wallet ranking or trading claim becomes an input to an institutional decision, a headline number is rarely enough. MSR separates the underlying mechanism, evidence quality, chronology and economic materiality.
An illustrative MSR forensic memorandum shows how a bounded question moves from source records to reconstruction, alternative explanations, finding and limitations.
View sample memorandum →Limited factual verification for journalists working on active prediction-market reporting remains available separately, free of charge.
Define the question MSR is being asked to test.
Agree the relevant market universe, permissible sources, available records and analytical limits.
Rebuild the activity and actively test alternative explanations against the evidence.
Provide the conclusion, supporting calculations, limitations and reproduction material appropriate to scope.
For legal work, conflict and engagement acceptance review may apply depending on the matter.
MSR reviews each inquiry before accepting a scope. The agreed scope defines the question, relevant records, data access, expected work product, and timing.
MSR currently works from public, venue-published and otherwise permitted public records. Do not submit privileged, legally restricted or highly confidential material, credentials, or sensitive personal information through this public form; initial contact does not itself create a privileged relationship.
