The workpaper says how the money was made. This says whether you could still have made it.

Five rules, applied identically to every entry — the same discipline the rest of this site uses for a published number, extended to one that hasn't happened yet.

1. Every wallet that earns a Real edge verdict gets one ledger entry, timestamped the moment it is entered and frozen with a content hash. Nothing about a frozen entry is ever edited after that — see rule 5.
2. The prices frozen are the ones a delayed follower could actually see at that moment — never the wallet's own historical fill prices — and only for positions still tradable: not already resolved or redeemable, and not priced at an extreme (≤$0.005 or ≥$0.995, where the market has effectively already decided). Only positions priced strictly between $0.005 and $0.995 are included. “Tradable” here means exactly those two tests and no more: we did not check order acceptance, depth, or whether a quote existed in any size, so the word marks what the screen tested rather than what a follower would have been able to execute.
3. A single, disclosed set of simulation assumptions is applied to every entry identically — bankroll, allocation, slippage, fees, holding period, compounding. Spelled out in full, verbatim, in §02.
4. Outcomes are published at fixed checkpoints — 24 hours, 7 days, 30 days after entry — computed against the frozen allocation, including losses and positions that have not yet resolved by their checkpoint date.
5. Any verdict that later loses money, or position unresolved by its checkpoint, stays recorded: nothing is removed, reworded, or excluded after the fact. This is "freeze means freeze" for a product made of frozen numbers — the full never-delete rule is below.

Every one of these is a modeling choice, not a measured fact — printed here once so no entry, and no future session filling a checkpoint, can silently apply a different rule.

Follower delay

Prices are frozen at ledger ENTRY time (enteredAt), never at the wallet's own historical fill timestamps. enteredAt is the simulated follower's information set: what a copier could actually see and act on the moment this entry was written, not what the original trader saw when they placed the trade.

Bankroll

A hypothetical $1,000 is allocated PER WALLET PER ENTRY — not per position, not shared across wallets.

Allocation

The $1,000 is split pro-rata across that entry's frozen positions by each position's currentValue at entry (position.currentValue / sum of currentValue across all frozen positions in the entry) * $1,000. If every frozen position's currentValue is 0 (sum is 0) the $1,000 is split equally across them instead. If an entry has zero frozen positions, the full $1,000 is recorded UNALLOCATED — held as idle simulated cash, not invented exposure. Correction 2026-08-03: "zero frozen positions" should read "no frozen position passed the screen". An entry can hold frozen positions the screen excludes, and three of cohort 1's four unallocated entries did. The allocation rule itself is unchanged.

Slippage / fill model

Simulated fills occur at the frozen curPrice plus a $0.01 adverse slippage haircut on entry (simulated entry price = curPrice + $0.01, capped so it never exceeds $0.999). This is a buy-side cost, always adverse to the simulated follower, never favorable.

Fees

None modeled. No trading fees, gas, or spread beyond the disclosed $0.01 slippage haircut is subtracted anywhere in this simulation.

Holding period

Simulated positions are held to the checkpoint date (24h / 7d / 30d after entry), or to the market's own resolution if that comes first. No early exit is simulated.

Compounding

None. Each wallet's $1,000 bankroll is fixed at entry and is not reinvested, topped up, or carried between checkpoints — h24, d7 and d30 are each measured independently against the SAME frozen entry, not against each other's results.

Cohort 1 is a backfill, and its dates don't line up the way every cohort after it will.

Cohort 1's 6 entries came from verdicts already published on 2026-07-15, before the ledger existed, so follower prices could only be frozen on 2026-07-19 — necessarily later than first publication. A reader on 2026-07-15 could therefore have acted at different prices. This limitation does not recur: from here forward, each entry freezes the moment its Real-edge verdict is first published, never on a later pass.

Before any checkpoint comes due, freezing the entries already answers a question retrospective forensics cannot.

The ledger measures that gap: real, reconstructable profit can leave a delayed follower nothing to copy. The workpaper's verdict and this ledger's accessibility are separate claims — collapsing them into one label is the mistake the evidence-confidence gate (§09 of the reconstruction workpaper) prevents for fetch completeness; this page applies the same discipline to timing.

Nothing is withheld or trimmed. A checkpoint that hasn't come due yet shows when it will; a filled checkpoint shows the result, gains and losses alike.

Cohort 1 — 6 entries, frozen 2026-07-19. already-published verdicts, decode-index.json cycle "July 2026" (generated 2026-07-15).

What the register says about the entry that produced cohort 1's result. The corrected fetch of 2026-07-25 was later run against the frozen headline set (U8, 2026-07-26). Five of the six Real edge wallets hold inside the published ±15% band under it; hot2trot does not — it moves from 110.8% to 133.7% of displayed profit: 10.8 points from parity, inside the band, to 33.7 from parity, which is 18.7 beyond the band's edge. That is the entry holding three of the four positions that produced cohort 1's entire non-zero result. The July cycle stays frozen on the fetch that produced it and the corrected fetch is the method of record going forward, so cohort 1's figures stand as published rather than being rewritten — but a reader weighing its +47.5% should know which measurement it rests on. U7 and U8 →

"Follower-accessible value at freeze" is the wallet's own position size still open and tradable at entry — a scale indicator of the opportunity remaining, not money any follower has. The checkpoint columns instead report the fixed $1,000-per-entry simulation, split pro-rata across those positions (§02); they measure that $1,000, never this column.

• Never deleted. Every entry, once written, is permanent. A verdict that goes on to lose money, or a position that never resolves by its checkpoint, is recorded and stays recorded — it is not removed, reworded, or excluded after the fact. Checkpoints are APPENDED to an entry as they come due; the frozen payload and frozenSha256 an entry was written with are never edited once set. If a computation error is ever found in a filled checkpoint, the fix is a new, dated correction appended beside the original result — never a silent rewrite. Freeze means freeze, applied to a product that is nothing but frozen numbers.
• Auditor access. Raw provenance for every entry — full position dumps, content hashes, and each freeze's exact fetch — is committed under data/ledger/ and available on request under our standing auditor-access commitment. It stays off the public surface only because it is an unreviewed raw duplicate of this page's numbers, not because it is secret. The entry and checkpoint dollar values on this page are rounded to whole dollars. The entry file behind them keeps those amounts to the cent or finer — so if you are checking us rather than reading us, ask for the cent-level figures from the entry itself, not the raw dumps alone. Request raw provenance for any entry →
• Business model. MSR Decode takes on commissioned forensic investigations, market-integrity reviews and research retainers. The wallet checker is free, and nothing on this page is for sale or purchasable.
• Positions. We hold no position in any wallet, market, or outcome discussed here. No simulated trade on this page is ever routed or executed.