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Archive · Historical researchJuly 2026 ProgramRetired August 26, 2026

This page preserves a wallet result from MSR Decode's July 2026 leaderboard-copyability study. The program is historical and is not a current recurring rating cycle. The original reconstruction, classification and disclosed limitations remain preserved below.

Current MSR Research →

MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №12 of 25

hot2trot

0xb61b2079b95f6b7476fd3203e0274ffb93308a06

$1.8M · 30-day displayed profit

Published July 2026 verdict
Real edge — Copyable

Frozen under the methodology used for the July 2026 cycle.

Current-method remeasurement
Outside the published reconstruction band

Under the corrected activity fetch, reconstructed profit measures approximately 133.7% of displayed profit — outside the ±15% band used for the July stamp. Source: u7-window-matched-2026-07-26.json; logged as U8 in the register.

July-cycle classification: Real edge

This wallet passed the July 2026 screen for a directional trading pattern and reconstruction agreement. The screen did not test whether another trader could obtain the same prices or results.

July-cycle status: Copyable — provisional

Provisional

Selection-time fetch measured 22.9 points of displayed profit short by the corrected re-fetch of 2026-07-26 (register row U8). The frozen cycle keeps the original figures, with the correction published beside them. See the evidence gate →

Polymarket displayed
$1.79M
MSR reconstructed
$1.98M
110.8% of displayed

Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle is published in full in the reconstruction workpaper.

Directional
95.7%
Post-resolution
0%
Bilateral (two-sided)
4.3%

For this incomplete-retrieval record, these mechanism percentages describe the original partial sample and were not recomputed from later counts.

September 20, 2026 clarification. This page preserves the July classification and its later corrected-method result separately; it does not state a current pass.

Historical July rationale: 111% reconstruction, low two-sided share, no crutch.

5,929 fills · 47 markets · avg buy $0.498 · top market: Spread: Spain (-1.5)

hot2trot cleared the published July 2026 historical screen. Read the completed historical simulation and its assumptions in the Ledger.

Discuss a scoped investigation of a wallet, market, or group of accounts. For funds, platforms & compliance teams →

This page is part of MSR Decode's historical July 2026 research program.