Request a Review

Archive · Historical researchJuly 2026 ProgramRetired August 26, 2026

This page preserves a wallet result from MSR Decode's July 2026 leaderboard-copyability study. The program is historical and is not a current recurring rating cycle. The original reconstruction, classification and disclosed limitations remain preserved below.

Current MSR Research →

MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №11 of 25

weatherman12

0xd1c537b2a7cba8d365e111bffb9de7b205e2cbd0

$1.8M · 30-day displayed profit

Real edge

This wallet passed the July 2026 screen for a directional trading pattern and reconstruction agreement. The screen did not test whether another trader could obtain the same prices or results.

Copyable — provisional

Provisional

Selection-time fetch measured 5.6 points of displayed profit short by the corrected re-fetch of 2026-07-26 (register row U8). The frozen cycle keeps the original figures, with the correction published beside them. See the evidence gate →

Polymarket displayed
$1.82M
MSR reconstructed
$1.82M
99.8% of displayed

Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle is published in full in the reconstruction workpaper.

Directional
97.6%
Post-resolution
0%
Bilateral (two-sided)
2.4%

For this incomplete-retrieval record, these mechanism percentages describe the original partial sample and were not recomputed from later counts.

September 20, 2026 clarification. The July classification was directional across 41 markets. A rounded 100% display does not mean exact agreement.

Historical July rationale: 100% reconstruction, textbook directional across 41 markets.

9,898 fills · 41 markets · avg buy $0.568 · top market: Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5

weatherman12 cleared the historical screen. Read the completed historical simulation and its assumptions in the Ledger.

Discuss a scoped investigation of a wallet, market, or group of accounts. For funds, platforms & compliance teams →

This page is part of MSR Decode's historical July 2026 research program.