MSR Decode

Archive · Historical researchJuly 2026 ProgramRetired August 26, 2026

This page preserves a wallet result from MSR Decode's July 2026 leaderboard-copyability study. The program is historical and is not a current recurring rating cycle. The original reconstruction, classification and disclosed limitations remain preserved below.

Current MSR Research →

MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №23 of 25

FootballFan98

0xc31d0a0d63d760d72a1236d16beaa6a71c854ebe

$973K · 30-day displayed profit

Insufficient evidence

The book won’t reconcile — we can’t verify how this money was made, so we won’t guess. That’s the answer, and it’s often the one that saves you.

Unverified — book won't close

Insufficient data

Polymarket displayed
$973K
MSR reconstructed
$-620K
-63.7% of displayed

Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle is published in full in the reconstruction workpaper.

Directional
84.6%
Post-resolution
0.1%
Bilateral (two-sided)
15.3%

Reconstruction fails; no decisive structural signal.

The book won’t reconcile from public data, so we don’t guess. That refusal is the product. Our verbatim rationale for this wallet is on file in the reconstruction workpaper, next to the errors on the wallets we did score.

Measured again 2026-07-26 (U7) — partial. The -63.7% above divides a lifetime reconstruction by a 30-day displayed figure. Recomputed over the same 30-day window the displayed figure covers, this wallet reconstructs 26.3% of displayed — but the recompute fails its own controls for this wallet: an incomplete boundary (3 positions we could not price at the window edge) and a share-ledger reconciliation against Polymarket’s own /positions that does not fully pass. The register carries it as a partial measurement, flagged rather than published as complete, and the verdict above — the frozen July 2026 cycle’s — does not move. Source: u7-window-matched-2026-07-26.json; logged as U7 in the register.

21028 fills · 137 markets · avg buy $0.535 · top market: Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?

This wallet did not clear the copyability screen — only 6 of 25 earned a copyable rating. See the ones that did.

Institutional: get this decode — or any wallet or cohort — as a decision-grade forensic audit. For funds, platforms & compliance teams →

This page is part of MSR Decode's historical July 2026 research program.