MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №19 of 25
alwayslatetotheparty
0xb687f00464e33934f5d591f224e71c3559ecaee5
$1.1M · 30-day displayed profit
One-shot
The July classification reflects a concentrated historical result. The page explains the wallet-specific limitation below.
Not copyable — one-shot
Provisional
Fill log truncated in its largest market (the /activity endpoint's hard offset cap). See the evidence gate →
Polymarket displayed
$1.11M
MSR reconstructed
$917K
82.8% of displayed
Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle is published in full in the reconstruction workpaper.
Directional
95.6%
Post-resolution
4%
Bilateral (two-sided)
0.4%
September 20, 2026 clarification. The July record shows substantial buying at prices of 2 cents or less across 812 markets. The study did not establish a repeatable advantage from that pattern.
Historical July rationale: 69% of buys are ≤$0.02 longshots — variance, not a process.
270,446 fills · 812 markets · avg buy $0.28 · top market: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates
This wallet did not clear the copyability screen — only 6 of 25 earned a copyable rating. See the ones that did.
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