MSR Decode

Archive · Historical researchJuly 2026 ProgramRetired August 26, 2026

This page preserves a wallet result from MSR Decode's July 2026 leaderboard-copyability study. The program is historical and is not a current recurring rating cycle. The original reconstruction, classification and disclosed limitations remain preserved below.

Current MSR Research →

MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №21 of 25

0xc41d…74fd

0xc41d736bded9ed1accd6a44235039266219774fd

$1.0M · 30-day displayed profit

Insufficient evidence

The book won’t reconcile — we can’t verify how this money was made, so we won’t guess. That’s the answer, and it’s often the one that saves you.

Unverified — book won't close

Insufficient data

Polymarket displayed
$1.02M
MSR reconstructed
$-1.15M
-112.3% of displayed

Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle is published in full in the reconstruction workpaper.

Directional
98.6%
Post-resolution
0%
Bilateral (two-sided)
1.4%

Reconstruction fails; directional shape, unverified.

The book won’t reconcile from public data, so we don’t guess. That refusal is the product. Our verbatim rationale for this wallet is on file in the reconstruction workpaper, next to the errors on the wallets we did score.

Corrected 2026-07-25. Re-fetching this wallet with the corrected pipeline measured 143.62% of displayed — an over-reconstruction — and a blind second implementation, run without access to ours, measured 143.22%. The -112.3% above was our data gap, not the wallet’s: it came from the fetch that silently omitted maker-side fills, the same failure we retracted in the endpoint case. The corrected figure still lands outside the ±15% band, so the verdict does not move, and the July 2026 cycle stays frozen on the fetch that produced it — the correction is published beside the original, not adopted. Source: scorecard-refetch-2026-07-25.json; the dated correction is on the Scorecard.

22400 fills · 221 markets · avg buy $0.448 · top market: Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?

This wallet did not clear the copyability screen — only 6 of 25 earned a copyable rating. See the ones that did.

Institutional: get this decode — or any wallet or cohort — as a decision-grade forensic audit. For funds, platforms & compliance teams →

This page is part of MSR Decode's historical July 2026 research program.