MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №25 of 25
wco26
0x3f6e93d1e2c2846a357276e29e7e9147e29c18d9
$676K · 30-day displayed profit
Insufficient evidence
Much of this estimate comes from Polymarket’s valuation of open positions. Agreement with the displayed figure therefore does not provide an independent verification of trading profit.
Not established under the July method
Insufficient data
Polymarket displayed
$676K
MSR reconstructed
$573K
84.8% of displayed
Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle is published in full in the reconstruction workpaper.
Directional
63.6%
Post-resolution
0%
Bilateral (two-sided)
36.4%
Revision history — why the verdict changed
September 20, 2026 clarification. The trade cash flow is negative while the platform valuation is positive. The 84.79% reconstruction and the share from open values are separate measures.
Historical July rationale: Re-stamped 2026-07-16 (was Real edge): our own fills reconstruct -104% of displayed profit, so the 84.79% agreement is mostly Polymarket's own mark on positions the wallet still holds (223% of the total), not our rebuild of its trades. The rebuilt total is itself 84.79% — 15.21 points from par, outside the same band. We do not certify an edge on the number under test.
This wallet was stamped Real edge — copyable when the scorecard first published. Most of the figure we were certifying is Polymarket’s own mark on positions the wallet still holds, so agreeing with it is Polymarket agreeing with Polymarket rather than a test our fills passed. We corrected the verdict on 2026-07-16 rather than leave it standing. The dated correction, the arithmetic, and the accuracy numbers this does not change are in the reconstruction workpaper.
7,348 fills · 11 markets · avg buy $0.612 · top market: Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This wallet did not clear the copyability screen — only 6 of 25 earned a copyable rating. See the ones that did.
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