MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №16 of 25
ndb1
0xfea31bc088000ff909be1dfd8d0e3f2c7ef2d227
$1.2M · 30-day displayed profit
Artifact
The July study classified this trading pattern as driven by market mechanics. The profit estimate and its data limitations are shown below.
Not copyable — leaderboard artifact
Provisional
Fill log truncated in its largest market (the /activity endpoint's hard offset cap). See the evidence gate →
Polymarket displayed
$1.18M
MSR reconstructed
$1.53M
130.1% of displayed
Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle is published in full in the reconstruction workpaper.
Directional
58.5%
Post-resolution
35.4%
Bilateral (two-sided)
6.1%
September 20, 2026 clarification. Near-$1 prices alone do not establish post-resolution trading or risk-free arbitrage. This is a historical classifier interpretation with stated data limits.
Historical July rationale: 35% of buys placed at ≥$0.99 — redemption arbitrage, not edge.
46,458 fills · 1,302 markets · avg buy $0.707 · top market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20
This wallet did not clear the copyability screen — only 6 of 25 earned a copyable rating. See the ones that did.
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