MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №18 of 25
cnyek
0x65018f9fc473f6e920b8929a375d39c26a461220
$1.1M · 30-day displayed profit
Insufficient evidence
The available records do not support a reliable reconstruction under the July 2026 method. The limitations are explained below.
Not established under the July method
Insufficient data
Polymarket displayed
$1.11M
MSR reconstructed
$1.82M
163.8% of displayed
Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle is published in full in the reconstruction workpaper.
Directional
100%
Post-resolution
0%
Bilateral (two-sided)
0%
September 20, 2026 clarification. The reconstruction equals 163.8% of the displayed amount, so the figures do not meet the study’s agreement threshold.
Historical July rationale: Reconstruction overshoots to 164% — cannot verify.
The book won’t reconcile from public data, so we don’t guess. That refusal is the product. Our verbatim rationale for this wallet is on file in the reconstruction workpaper, next to the errors on the wallets we did score.
1,876 fills · 67 markets · avg buy $0.625 · top market: Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance
This wallet did not clear the copyability screen — only 6 of 25 earned a copyable rating. See the ones that did.
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