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Archived researchSuperseded quantitative measurements

MSR Decode archived this study because its original retrieval did not support several published counts and classifications. A later retrieval led MSR to withdraw one wallet count, while other figures lack retained source artifacts. Those measurements should not be used as current wallet rankings or evidence of repeatable results.

This page retains corrected purchase receipts, dated corrections and supporting tables. Earlier article versions no longer appear on the public page. The current narrative distinguishes the surviving evidence from withdrawn and unresolved claims.

StatusRetained itemScope
Supported within stated scopedebased purchase receiptsReceipt lines, not a full lifetime profit audit
Withdrawnswisstony fill countLater retrieval found a materially different count
Unresolved / supersededOther historical counts and classificationsSource artifacts are not retained for independent revalidation
Separate reconstructionmyzbsq football positionOne position, not an archive-wide wallet ranking
MSR Decode · Archive · Case 01 · Archived

Archived: missing data undermined MSR’s wallet rankings

A later retrieval found 2.9 million fills for one wallet, compared with roughly 14,000 first reported. The rankings were withdrawn; a few specific purchase receipts remain checkable.

Archived study · Original pull July 11, 2026 · Read with dated corrections · Updated October 6, 2026 · 4 min read
Contents
  1. 01 · The retrieval limits made a partial history look like a lifetime count
  2. 02 · The retained receipts establish specific purchases
  3. 03 · The correction history leaves the broader ranking withdrawn
  4. What this calculation covers
  5. Evidence and corrections

This study is archived and its wallet rankings are withdrawn. MSR’s original July 11, 2026 report treated incomplete trading histories as complete. The clearest failure was swisstony: the report listed roughly 14,000 fills, while a more extensive July 16 retrieval found 2,918,281. This page retains the failure record, dated corrections and a few checkable purchase receipts. It does not restore the ranking. Withdrawal and correction history

A feed returns records under its retrieval limits. Reaching those limits does not establish that the account stopped trading there. A wallet-wide ranking needs the relevant history; a valid receipt proves only the purchase it records. Those distinctions explain why narrow evidence can survive while the broader study remains withdrawn.

The retrieval limits made a partial history look like a lifetime count

The feed capped results at roughly 3,400 rows per wallet and 3,500 per time window. MSR’s initial pull did not subdivide busy windows enough to clear those limits. The roughly 14,000 swisstony fills were only about 0.48% of the later retrieval, which found more than 200 times as many. The omission arose in MSR’s retrieval, rather than in an established explanation about the wallet’s trading. History and retrieval limits

The later process paged time windows until each finished below the cap. It did not independently check the 2,918,281 fills against the activity endpoint. The larger count therefore shows the original omission without certifying a complete lifetime history. Other wallets were not all remeasured and lacked the artifacts needed for revalidation. Repairing one count could not validate the rest of the ranking.

Evidence explained

The later retrieval was more than 200 times larger

Swisstony fill counts · original count approximate · common zero baseline

Original July 11 count≈14,000
Later July 16 retrieval2,918,281
Bars share a zero baseline. Values are labeled above.
Work it through

14,000 ÷ 2,918,281 × 100 ≈ 0.48% · 2,918,281 ÷ 14,000 ≈ 208×

The later figure was not independently checked against the separate activity endpoint; it is a retrieval result, not an absolute audit.

The retained receipts establish specific purchases

Five retained purchase lines for the wallet labeled debased document football shares bought close to $1. In a four-minute Portugal window on July 6, the aggregate recorded 151,227 No shares for about $150,856 across 21 fills priced at least 99 cents. The three largest displayed fills are included in that aggregate and must not be added again. In the U.S. team’s market on July 7, eight fills bought 2,863.7 No shares for $2,849.38. Retained purchase artifact

Evidence explained

Two retained purchase windows

Debased receipt artifact · displayed quantities and costs

WindowShares acquiredRecorded costFills
Portugal No · July 6 · four-minute window151,227$150,85621
USA No · July 7 · three-second window2,863.7$2,849.388
The Portugal aggregate includes its three largest displayed fills. Average prices and share quantities are rounded, so use recorded cash rather than multiplying rounded inputs.

Those receipts establish purchases at particular prices. They do not establish profit after all sales, payouts and other positions. The earlier wallet-wide summary was unsupported, and its fill count differed from saved engine output by 757. The withdrawn summary cannot supply the missing accounting for these receipts.

A hypothetical contract bought for 99 cents earns one cent before costs if it pays $1 and loses 99 cents if it pays nothing. Buying near $1 therefore does not establish safety or repeatability. The retained purchase price also does not show that the outcome was already final or that another trader could obtain the same terms.

Evidence explained

A 99-cent purchase has asymmetric dollar outcomes

Illustration · one contract bought for $0.99 · fees excluded

If it pays $1+$0.01One-dollar payout minus 99-cent cost
If it pays $0−$0.99No payout against the same cost
Work it through

$1.00 − $0.99 = $0.01 · $0.00 − $0.99 = −$0.99

This illustrates the payoff shape. It does not assign an outcome probability or describe what happened to these receipt positions.

Earlier “real edge,” “artifact” and bot classifications were withdrawn conclusions. The separately reconstructed myzbsq football position has its own evidence and does not validate them. The historical table remains a record of superseded claims, rather than a current comparison of traders.

The correction history leaves the broader ranking withdrawn

The July 11 study was pulled that day. July 16 checks exposed the swisstony omission and prompted receipt-arithmetic work. By July 18, the purchase artifact had been corrected. An August 14 revision narrowed the headline and use of “complete”; later clarifications separated observed purchases from strategy claims. Dated corrections

The surviving value is a traceable account of the retrieval failure and the narrower facts supported by retained records. The archived status is part of the finding. A corrected purchase receipt cannot turn the superseded wallet-wide ranking into current research.

Evidence explained

What can be used from the archive

Evidence status governs how each item should be read

ItemCurrent statusPermitted scope
Debased purchase receiptsRetained evidenceSpecific purchase lines
Original swisstony countWithdrawnCorrection history only
Other old counts and strategy labelsUnresolved or supersededHistorical claims, not current rankings
Myzbsq positionSeparate reconstructionOne closed football-market position
The archived original remains available for comparison, with its corrections retained.
Evidence tables, source files and corrections

Evidence, calculations and corrections

Calculation details

The 99-cent comparison illustrates a simple $1 binary payoff before costs; it is not an observed settlement of the retained purchases. Historical wallet counts and percentages in the preserved table remain superseded. The dated correction timeline and corrected purchase artifact identify the surviving evidence.

Correction record

October 4, 2026: This article was rewritten as one current narrative. Earlier article versions and the duplicate finding text were removed from the public page; supporting tables, visuals, source destinations and correction facts remain available below.

Scope note, revised 2026-08-14. An earlier title and thesis used the phrase “mostly bots” and presented displayed profit as reconstructed PnL. They were revised to describe the per-wallet signature classification and distinguish displayed PnL from cash-flow reconstruction. See Section 05 for the scope of those findings, and Version history →.
Clarification, added 2026-09-20. This clarification concerns the archived labels and comparisons. See Section 05 for the limits on conclusions about post-resolution trading, arbitrage, skill and repeatability.
Table note — fill counts not independently verified. This section originally described the fill counts below as “complete fill history.” One row is known wrong: swisstony’s printed lifetime total was 14K fills — roughly 0.5% of the 2,918,281 a 2026-07-16 re-fetch measures (every window paged to a clean under-cap finish; the most complete lifetime /trades total obtained, not independently checked against /activity). The cause was ours, not the wallet’s: Polymarket’s feed caps at roughly 3,400 rows per wallet and 3,500 per time-window, and the original 2026-07-11 pull did not subdivide far enough to clear it. The other four counts on this table have not been re-measured and carry the same risk; they are marked accordingly rather than restated. The original report stated that the classification survived — it rests on the shape of the fills seen (two-sided share, price distribution), not their count — but no fill or market count on this page should be treated as current. Full history → · U1–U2 →

Purchase receipts

Retained purchase receipts

market: "Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"
  BUY 126,195 NO shares @ avg 0.9981 for $125,950  · 2026-07-06 20:58
  BUY   8,609 NO @ 0.9980 = $8,592   · 20:58
  BUY   2,804 NO @ 0.9900 = $2,776   · 20:54
  → 151,227 NO shares @ avg 0.9975 for $150,856, all inside a 4-minute window (three largest fills shown; 21 fills at ≥0.99 in this window, all in the artifact)

market: "Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"
  BUY 2,863.7 NO shares @ avg 0.9950 for $2,849.38  · 8 fills, 2026-07-07 01:21:25–01:21:28

These buys were priced close to $1, leaving a small maximum payout per share and a larger loss if the outcome failed.

Historical table — withdrawn rankings

Top wallets, classified by strategy signature, as of the 2026-07-11 pull. The monthly Scorecard is a different measurement — a 30-day window, recomputed 2026-07-15 — so displayed profits differ legitimately between the two. The fill counts do not differ legitimately. This caption used to explain that a 30-day count can exceed a lifetime count “if it kept trading between the pulls”; on 2026-07-16 we tested that and it is false. swisstony ran ~47,000 fills in those four days, and the most complete lifetime /trades total we obtained is 2,918,281. Logged in UNRECONCILED.md U1. Where the numbers matter, the Scorecard and the workpaper are the cycle’s record; the counts on this page are not.
WalletDisplayed · Polymarket
full history, pulled 2026-07-11
Full history
as of the 2026-07-11 pull
Signature (full fills)What it really isRetail-copy verdict
swisstony$18.6M514 mkts · 14K fills
withdrawn 2026-07-16 — a re-fetch counts 2,918,281 fills, >200× this. See the correction above.
35% bilateral · 11% ≥$0.99Mixed market-maker / arb flownot copyable
RN1$11.1M10,062 mkts · 324K fills56% bilateralPure bilateral market-maker — spread capturenot copyable
ImJustKen$3.3M2,140 mkts · 135K fills59% bilateral · 14% ≥$0.99Bilateral MM + redemption-arb tailnot copyable
debased$1.67M444 mkts · 74K fills67% bilateral · 65% ≥$0.99Near-certain-outcome harvester (full decode, §02)not copyable
tripping$89.5K656 mkts · 469K fills80% of buys at ≤$0.02Deep-longshot lottery — pure variancevariance
suntori−$4.6M1,484 mkts · 53K fills26% bilateral · high volumeHigh-volume net loseravoid

Source files and references

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