MSR Decode

Archive · Historical researchJuly 2026 ProgramRetired August 26, 2026

This page preserves a wallet result from MSR Decode's July 2026 leaderboard-copyability study. The program is historical and is not a current recurring rating cycle. The original reconstruction, classification and disclosed limitations remain preserved below.

Current MSR Research →

MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №5 of 25

Sparkling8899

0x2e25b222e2080c377fc1fb2b9f926315f0f4d49e

$2.4M · 30-day displayed profit

Insufficient evidence

The book won’t reconcile — we can’t verify how this money was made, so we won’t guess. That’s the answer, and it’s often the one that saves you.

Unverified — book won't close

Insufficient data

Polymarket displayed
$2.42M
MSR reconstructed
$-1.7M
-70.4% of displayed

Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle is published in full in the reconstruction workpaper.

Directional
96.6%
Post-resolution
0%
Bilateral (two-sided)
3.4%

Directional-looking on structure, but our own fill log here is truncated — the −70% rebuild is not evidence about this wallet either way. The gap is unreconciled.

The book won’t reconcile from public data, so we don’t guess. That refusal is the product. Our verbatim rationale for this wallet is on file in the reconstruction workpaper, next to the errors on the wallets we did score.

Measured again 2026-07-26 (U7). The -70.4% above divides a lifetime reconstruction by a 30-day displayed figure. Recomputed over the same 30-day window the displayed figure covers — with the share ledger reconciled against Polymarket’s own /positions and zero unpriced boundary positions — this wallet reconstructs 85.6% of displayed. The verdict above is the frozen July 2026 cycle’s and does not move, but the register records that the gap the -70.4% figure opened largely closes under the matched window. Source: u7-window-matched-2026-07-26.json; logged as U7 in the register.

22682 fills · 29 markets · avg buy $0.526 · top market: Will United States win on 2026-06-12?

This wallet did not clear the copyability screen — only 6 of 25 earned a copyable rating. See the ones that did.

Institutional: get this decode — or any wallet or cohort — as a decision-grade forensic audit. For funds, platforms & compliance teams →

This page is part of MSR Decode's historical July 2026 research program.