Sparkling8899
$2.4M · 30-day displayed profit
The available records do not support a reliable reconstruction under the July 2026 method. The limitations are explained below.
Not established under the July method
Insufficient data
Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle is published in full in the reconstruction workpaper.
September 20, 2026 clarification. The 85.6% matched-window update provides context for an older method result; the negative original figure is not a wallet loss.
Historical July rationale: Directional-looking on structure, but our own fill log here is truncated — the −70% rebuild is not evidence about this wallet either way. The gap is unreconciled.
The book won’t reconcile from public data, so we don’t guess. That refusal is the product. Our verbatim rationale for this wallet is on file in the reconstruction workpaper, next to the errors on the wallets we did score.
Measured again 2026-07-26 (U7). The -70.4% above divides a lifetime reconstruction by a 30-day displayed figure. Recomputed over the same 30-day window the displayed figure covers — with the share ledger reconciled against Polymarket’s own /positions and zero unpriced boundary positions — this wallet reconstructs 85.6% of displayed. The verdict above is the frozen July 2026 cycle’s and does not move, but the register records that the gap the -70.4% figure opened largely closes under the matched window. Source: u7-window-matched-2026-07-26.json; logged as U7 in the register.
22,682 fills · 29 markets · avg buy $0.526 · top market: Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
This wallet did not clear the copyability screen — only 6 of 25 earned a copyable rating. See the ones that did.
Discuss a scoped investigation of a wallet, market, or group of accounts. For funds, platforms & compliance teams →