MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №24 of 25
filthybetz
0xc6a63ad5a788a576d4acc9911c50fef9fde49458
$961K · 30-day displayed profit
Insufficient evidence
The reconstructed profit falls outside the July study’s permitted range of 85% to 115% of displayed profit, so this wallet did not meet the reconstruction requirement.
Not established under the July method
Insufficient data
Polymarket displayed
$961K
MSR reconstructed
$816K
84.96% of displayed
Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle is published in full in the reconstruction workpaper.
Directional
92.9%
Post-resolution
0%
Bilateral (two-sided)
7.1%
Revision history — why the verdict changed
September 20, 2026 clarification. The reconstruction is 84.96% of the displayed amount, or 15.04 percentage points below 100%. It falls just outside the stated agreement band.
Historical July rationale: Re-stamped 2026-07-16 (was Real edge): reconstructs to 84.96% of displayed profit — 15.04 points from par, outside the ±15% band the scorecard publishes as the condition for the stamp. The figure is built from the wallet's own fills; it simply does not land inside our promise.
This wallet was stamped Real edge — copyable when the scorecard first published. Its reconstruction is substantially the wallet’s own fills — no open-book mark is carrying it — but it does not land inside the ±15% band we publish as the condition for the stamp. We corrected the verdict on 2026-07-16 rather than widen the promise to fit. The dated correction, the arithmetic, and the accuracy numbers this does not change are in the reconstruction workpaper.
8,067 fills · 42 markets · avg buy $0.462 · top market: Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
This wallet did not clear the copyability screen — only 6 of 25 earned a copyable rating. See the ones that did.
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