Capabilities
A commissioned investigation starts with a defined question, not a predetermined allegation. MSR Decode identifies the relevant records, tests their completeness and semantics, reconstructs the underlying activity, evaluates alternative explanations, and delivers the conclusion with its evidence and limitations attached.
We do not route trades, hold custody, or offer individualized investment advice — and a negative or insufficient-evidence outcome is a valid finding, not a failed engagement.
Verdict-neutral Confidentiality, permitted use and information-handling obligations are defined in the written engagement terms before work begins. Analytical conclusions remain independent — a negative or “insufficient” finding renders exactly like a positive one.
Eight classes of question MSR Decode can investigate. Each capability names its method and its limitations — MSR does not claim universal capability, and scope is confirmed before an engagement is accepted. See what the resulting work product can include.
Where the capabilities above tend to get used.
Independent reconstruction and analytical support when prediction-market trading becomes relevant to a dispute, investigation or regulatory question.
Is reported activity economically meaningful, and how reliable is the venue data behind it? For funds, prop desks and diligence teams evaluating a specific claim.
Evidence-first analysis of market activity, data quality, settlement design, surveillance questions and unusual trading behavior.
Every engagement is evidence-first research on public and venue records: a finding with its method and limitations attached, never a predetermined conclusion or an individualized investment recommendation. Availability, delivery, and permitted downstream use are reviewed case by case and may depend on data access, required permissions, and applicable legal or contractual constraints.
A defined question involving a wallet or account, a market, an account cohort, a transaction history, a claim, a PnL figure, a funding path, or a related prediction-market record. Deliverable: an evidence-backed finding, the reconstruction and methodology behind it, relevant calculations, its limitations, and reproduction material where appropriate.
Legal, compliance, research & diligence teams evaluating a specific claim
A broader review of a defined market, event, or account cohort: trading concentration, chronology, economic churn, circular or offsetting activity, reported-volume mechanics, market structure, account behavior, alternative explanations, and data-quality limitations. We do not promise a manipulation or insider-trading finding — only what the evidence independently supports, with appropriate corroboration.
We do not attribute identity, common control, or intent from trading similarity alone. When the public trail stops, the workpaper says so — and states what remains unanswered.
Platforms · compliance teams · legal teams · institutional research teams
Ongoing human-led review of a predefined universe — markets, accounts, events, categories, or defined forensic triggers you set. Creates a documented review trail when predefined triggers warrant human investigation. The review is verdict-neutral: confirming evidence, disconfirming evidence and no-finding outcomes are documented under the same standard.
Risk & compliance teams · platforms with listing or integrity duties
When a market metric, wallet ranking or trading claim becomes an input to an institutional decision, a headline number is rarely enough. MSR separates the underlying mechanism, evidence quality, chronology and economic materiality.
An illustrative MSR forensic memorandum shows how a bounded question moves from source records to reconstruction, alternative explanations, finding and limitations.
View sample memorandum →Limited factual verification for journalists working on active prediction-market reporting remains available separately, free of charge.
Bound the factual or economic proposition MSR is being asked to test.
Agree the relevant market universe, permissible sources, available records and analytical limits.
Rebuild the activity and actively test alternative explanations against the evidence.
Provide the conclusion, supporting calculations, limitations and reproduction material appropriate to scope.
For legal work, conflict and engagement acceptance review may apply depending on the matter.
MSR reviews each inquiry before accepting a scope. Scoping bounds the question, the relevant source universe, data access, the expected work product and timing before any work begins.
MSR currently works from public, venue-published and otherwise permitted public records. Do not submit privileged, legally restricted or highly confidential material through this public form; initial contact does not itself create a privileged relationship.
