Capabilities / Legal, Disputes & Investigations
Analytical support when a prediction-market record becomes part of a dispute or investigation.
For counsel, in-house legal teams, regulators and investigators who need a prediction-market trading record independently reconstructed and reconciled — not summarized from a dashboard. MSR Decode identifies the relevant records, reconstructs the underlying activity, tests alternative explanations, and states the finding with its evidence and limitations attached.
Structure only, generalized from the cartel-arrest-markets case: two tested law-enforcement announcements, no trading found before either one, first movement roughly ten minutes after disclosure in the event timed to the minute.
Contents
Who this is for
Counsel and in-house legal teams evaluating a trading-record question; regulators and investigators who need an independent reconstruction; experts who need supporting analysis they can cite and defend.
Typical questions
- Did a specific account's trading precede a public disclosure, and by how much?
- Does a claimed profit or loss survive complete reconstruction from the underlying fills?
- What do a market's transaction records actually show about how a contract resolved?
- Is an alleged trading pattern supported by transaction evidence, or by pattern-matching alone?
- What does the public record establish about a claim, and what does it leave open?
Evidence MSR can examine
- Public on-chain records: individual fills, transfers, settlement and redemption events.
- Venue-published trade, activity and position records, and their API semantics and known limitations.
- Public market metadata: contract terms, resolution sources, timing and close events.
- Publicly available filings, releases and contemporaneous reporting relevant to a specific claim.
Analytical methods
The same disclosed, ten-step standard used throughout MSR's public research — question, provenance, semantics, completeness, reconstruction, alternative explanations, materiality, conclusion, reproduction, corrections. See the full methodology. Chronology reconstruction is tested against the market's own clock, not a headline timestamp; funding-path tracing is tested against a stated null model of coincidence, not assumed from similarity alone.
Possible deliverables
Scope determines which of these ship for a given engagement.
- Executive finding — a clear answer to the bounded question.
- Transaction / reconstruction ledger — the underlying trade and transaction accounting.
- Source schedule — records, URLs, APIs, datasets and provenance.
- Timeline — trading activity against relevant external events.
- Technical workpaper — methods, assumptions, limitations and reproduction material.
Example investigation
Scope boundaries
MSR currently provides analytical and reconstruction support rather than standing expert-testimony services. Transaction evidence alone does not establish identity, intent or possession of nonpublic information without independent corroboration. A negative or insufficient-evidence finding is a valid outcome, not a failed engagement; see the independence policy.
Discuss a matter
MSR reviews the question, available records, scope and appropriate work product before accepting an engagement.