Capabilities / Institutional Research & Diligence
Is a prediction market's reported activity economically meaningful — and is the data behind it reliable?
For funds, prop desks and diligence teams evaluating a specific claim, venue, or apparent trading edge. MSR Decode reconstructs the underlying activity from source, tests the mechanism against alternative explanations, and states what the evidence supports.
Every cited “proof wallet” behind the claim, rebuilt fill by fill. Read the case →
Who this is for
Funds and prop desks doing diligence on a specific wallet, strategy or claim; research teams evaluating venue data reliability; teams assessing whether an apparent trading edge is mechanically real.
Typical questions
- Does a wallet's displayed profit survive complete, independent economic reconstruction?
- What mechanism actually generated an observed price move or volume figure — directional, arbitrage, market-making, reward-farming, or churn?
- Do a venue's displayed trade, volume or PnL figures faithfully describe the underlying on-chain activity?
- How concentrated is participation in a market or cohort, and among how many independent parties?
- What settlement or contract-design risk does a specific market carry?
Evidence MSR can examine
- On-chain fills, transfers and settlement events for a wallet, market, or cohort.
- Raw venue API responses, cross-checked against the underlying chain for reconciliation.
- Contract terms and resolution sources, tested against the market's own published rules.
- Funding paths and account relationships, tested against a stated null model of coincidence.
Analytical methods
The same disclosed, ten-step standard used throughout MSR's public research; see the full methodology. Cash-flow reconstruction is decomposed by mechanism, not just netted to one figure.
Potential work product
Scope determines which of these ship for a given engagement.
- Executive finding — a clear answer to the bounded question.
- Economic analysis — PnL, cash activity, incentives, concentration or market impact.
- Source schedule — records, URLs, APIs, datasets and provenance.
- Transaction / reconstruction ledger — the underlying trade and transaction accounting.
- Technical workpaper — methods, assumptions, limitations and reproduction material.
One strong proof case
Scope boundaries
Work is currently bespoke and scoped to a defined question or universe rather than delivered through a broad systematic data feed. MSR does not promise alpha, a trading recommendation, or a forecast, and a reconciled number is not, by itself, evidence of strategy, intent, or common control. A negative or insufficient-evidence finding is a valid outcome; see the independence policy.
Discuss a matter
MSR reviews the question, available records, scope and appropriate work product before accepting an engagement.