The biggest wallet cited in a guide to Polymarket weather-trading bots was shown with $80,749.71 in all-time profit. MSR reconstructed its trading from November 2025 through July 2026 and found a loss of $2,418,918.35. Selected claims and reconstruction
That one loss outweighed the gains in the three other promoted wallets MSR could identify, leaving the four about $2.35 million down combined on the report’s reconstructed basis. Not every claim in the guides was wrong: a Hong Kong trader’s monthly profit claim was consistent with the trades.
Comparing a screenshot with a reconstruction takes care, because the two can measure different things. MSR adds sales, payouts and the stated value of any remaining holdings, then subtracts what the wallet paid. A payout can return the trader’s own capital as well as a gain, and a winning share still held is not the same as a payout collected. A promotional figure and a reconstruction can be compared only when they cover the same period on the same accounting basis.
$5.68 million in, $3.26 million back
The $80,750 figure came from a widely viewed post. Between November 2025 and July 2026, the wallet’s retrieved record shows 193,329 purchases and 34 sales across 6,639 markets. The purchases cost $5,683,307.38. Sales returned $20,878.16 and final payouts $3,243,510.87. Its other 1,669 recorded holdings resolved worthless and added nothing. Wallet ledger and screenshot attribution
The flagship wallet spent more than it received
November 2025–July 2026 · reconstructed wallet cash and closing value · USD
| Component | Amount |
|---|---|
| Purchases | −$5,683,307.38 |
| Sale proceeds | +$20,878.16 |
| Resolution payouts | +$3,243,510.87 |
| Remaining holdings · resolved worthless | $0.00 |
| Net result | −$2,418,918.35 |
20,878.16 + 3,243,510.87 − 5,683,307.38 = −2,418,918.35 dollars
About 57 cents came back for every dollar spent. That is a cash-recovery ratio comparing receipts with purchase costs, not a market win rate. The wallet’s buying also tailed off, from roughly $1.74 million in April to about $42,000 in July.
A second guide described an anonymous account making about $39,300 in a month with an 80% win rate. Its address led to the same wallet as the $80,750 screenshot. The two guides were making claims about one account, not documenting two independent successes. Supporting comparison of both claims
Three wallets with modest gains
A wallet promoted as making $72,500 “only” from weather trading had a reconstructed lifetime result of about $47,943. Weather was 41% of its activity, and esports was its largest single market category. MSR checked 91 additional markets for this wallet and valued each winning share still held when its market resolved at $1. Other promoted wallets
Another wallet, promoted with an automation claim of roughly $42,400, had a reconstructed result of $13,442.75 on $472,248.32 deployed across 12,691 fills, with weather accounting for 89% of its activity. The guide presented it as a live example in February 2026, but its last substantive trading had been in July 2025, about seven months earlier.
Three positives and one much larger loss
MSR lifetime reconstructions for the four selected accounts · differing start dates
| Identifiable example | Reconstructed result | Important scope |
|---|---|---|
| Flagship screenshot wallet | −$2,418,918.35 | Nov 2025–Jul 2026 cash and closing value |
| “Only weather” example | +$47,943 | Approximate result; 41% weather; includes valued winning holdings |
| Automation-claim example | +$13,442.75 | 89% weather; last substantive trades Jul 2025 |
| Hong Kong monthly example | +$7,885.54 | Lifetime from Jun 9; monthly claim checked separately |
Using the approximate second result: −2,418,918.35 + 47,943 + 13,442.75 + 7,885.54 ≈ −$2.35m
The Hong Kong claim held up. Its author supplied an address for a profit of roughly $6,700 from a month of temperature trading, and the reviewed fills were consistent with it. A separate lifetime calculation showed $7,885.54 across 8,115 fills and 536 markets from June 9, mostly in July. The monthly and lifetime figures cover different windows; they are not competing estimates of the same amount. Hong Kong claim and records
The account was profitable while winning only about half its markets. Of 135 closed markets, 69 were positive, about 51.1%, but its average gain was about twice its average loss. How much a trader wins and loses matters as well as how often.
A modest win rate can coexist with a positive result
Hong Kong wallet · 135 closed markets
69 ÷ 135 × 100 ≈ 51.1%
The trades the default feed left out
The Hong Kong comparison worked only once MSR recovered the maker side of the trading. The default feed omitted 6,154 of the account’s 8,115 fills, about 75.8%. A fill is one completed execution, and a single order can produce several. Across the four wallets, MSR reviewed 228,106 fills and 10,111 markets from November 2024 through July 2026, with documented patches where needed. Method and coverage
A profit screenshot is a claim, and a wallet’s full ledger of purchases, sales, payouts and remaining shares is what tests it. Here the ledger showed the guides’ flagship wallet losing $2.42 million, while confirming one smaller trader’s monthly profit.