{
  "published": "2026-07-28",
  "method": "Complete per-market fetch of data-api.polymarket.com/trades with takerOnly=false, conditionIds enumerated from the trades slice, /positions, and /activity?type=REDEEM; deduplicated on (transactionHash, timestamp, asset, side, price, size); cross-checked against /activity TRADE counts in the overlapping window. pnl = sell_usd + redeem_usd + open_value - buy_usd. Blind recompute of buy/sell components by an independent model matched to the cent.",
  "wallets": {
    "surfer_ladder": {
      "address": "0x4989bfed5900ba096b08ba1f9b718464527c983e",
      "cited_as": "~$6,748 this month (self-published by its owner)",
      "fills": 8115,
      "markets": 536,
      "first_fill": "2026-06-09T17:52:00Z",
      "last_fill": "2026-07-28T12:15:31Z",
      "buy_usd": 47404.63,
      "buy_fills": 6676,
      "sell_usd": 26289.82,
      "sell_fills": 1439,
      "redeem_usd": 28154.17,
      "redeem_count": 275,
      "open_value_usd": 846.18,
      "open_positions": 15,
      "pnl_usd": 7885.54,
      "verdict": "claim approximately true; strategy is high-frequency maker/scalping, not the passive recipe sold alongside it",
      "notes": "takerOnly default hides 6154 of 8115 fills (75.8%). Closed-event record 69/135 net-positive."
    },
    "coldmath_flagship": {
      "address": "0x594edb9112f526fa6a80b8f858a6379c8a2c1c11",
      "cited_as": "+$80,749 viral screenshot; also cited separately as +$39.3K/month with 80% win rate",
      "fills": 193363,
      "markets": 6639,
      "first_fill": "2025-11-09T13:07:05Z",
      "last_fill": "2026-07-22T05:56:24Z",
      "buy_usd": 5683307.38,
      "buy_fills": 193329,
      "sell_usd": 20878.16,
      "sell_fills": 34,
      "redeem_usd": 3243510.87,
      "redeem_count": 5035,
      "open_value_usd": 0,
      "open_positions": 1669,
      "pnl_usd": -2418918.35,
      "verdict": "claims refuted; the +$80,749 figure is the profile display metric, contradicted by the wallet's own fills",
      "notes": "Both citations resolve to this one address. Open positions: 1669 resolved-worthless holdings."
    },
    "automated_ai_trading_bot": {
      "address": "0xd8f8c13644ea84d62e1ec88c5d1215e436eb0f11",
      "cited_as": "+$72.5K, only on weather trading",
      "fills": 13937,
      "markets": 1169,
      "first_fill": "2025-12-31T13:23:19Z",
      "last_fill": "2026-07-14T12:03:04Z",
      "buy_usd": 105378.08,
      "buy_fills": 11133,
      "sell_usd": 27219.58,
      "sell_fills": 2804,
      "redeem_usd_captured": 111392.56,
      "redeem_count_captured": 5500,
      "redeem_reconstruction_usd": 14681.77,
      "open_value_usd": 26.86,
      "open_positions": 347,
      "pnl_usd_approx": 47942.7,
      "pnl_precision": "approximate: the redemption feed truncates at the API's offset cap; 91 held-to-resolution markets outside the captured window were resolved via CLOB winning-outcome lookups and winning shares credited at $1.00 (14681.77), worthless shares at $0",
      "verdict": "profitable but claim ~1.5x overstated; weather is 41% of fills (boundary-aware match) — top market family is esports; monthly buy volume down roughly 93% after April 2026",
      "notes": null
    },
    "aboss": {
      "address": "0xaaec89fcb2ff14b335ddd738edf355ac07038dc8",
      "cited_as": "+$42.4K, only from automated bot",
      "fills": 12691,
      "markets": 1767,
      "first_fill": "2024-11-24T17:34:24Z",
      "last_fill": "2025-09-19T15:33:38Z",
      "buy_usd": 472248.32,
      "buy_fills": 10036,
      "sell_usd": 80735.12,
      "sell_fills": 2655,
      "redeem_usd": 404953.89,
      "redeem_count": 1525,
      "open_value_usd": 2.05,
      "open_positions": 18,
      "pnl_usd": 13442.75,
      "verdict": "claim ~3x overstated; last substantive trading July 2025, cited as live proof in February 2026",
      "notes": "89.2% weather fills."
    }
  },
  "combined_pnl_usd_approx": -2349647.36,
  "unresolved": "A fifth exhibit appears only as a video-frame screenshot; its handle does not resolve to any Polymarket profile under plausible spellings and is excluded from all claims."
}