Eight days after a firm called Wedgewood Polls admitted it was a fake polling firm, its fabricated poll of the Mississippi Senate race is still being counted on some election forecasting websites. Its numbers also appeared in a political fundraising email that is dated to the day after the admission. And a prediction platform’s news site is still citing another Wedgewood poll without a correction till present (Oct 28th, 2026).
While major news organizations and forecasters quickly removed the data, an analysis by MSR Decode found the fake poll by Wedgewood is still changing some polling averages just days before the Nov. 3 election.
The fake poll a week after the exposure
Figures checked on Oct. 28, 2026
The Persistence of a Ghost Poll
Wedgewood released its Mississippi survey on Oct. 14, where it showed Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith leading Democratic challenger Scott Colom 52% to 48%, a close result in a state Donald Trump won by about 23 points in 2024.
On Oct. 20, the poll-analysis outlet FiftyPlusOne reported that the Mississippi data had been fabricated, and Wedgewood admitted that day that the firm was fake. Its statement said the vast majority of its releases had no real data behind them, according to Magnolia Tribune and the Michigan news service MIRS.
Major outlets moved quickly. By Oct. 21, The New York Times had removed 15 Wedgewood polls and Decision Desk HQ said it had removed 17, according to a syndicated news report. Nate Silver removed them from his forecast that day, Newsweek reported. However, some smaller election sites lagged behind:
- Polls vs. Odds: On Oct. 28, the fabricated survey still makes up 87% of Mississippi’s polling average on the site. With the fake poll, the average showed Hyde-Smith ahead by 4.5 points. Without it, the average would have shown her ahead by 8 points.
- Who Shows Up: The fake poll made up about 97% of the site’s Mississippi average on Oct. 23. After the site added a newer Change Research poll, Wedgewood’s share fell to 34%.
- PredictionEdge: The site still listed the Wedgewood poll on Oct. 28 and counted it in a simple average of seven polls. There it moves Hyde-Smith’s lead only slightly, from 5.7 points without it to 5.4 points with it.
Hyde-Smith’s lead with and without the fake poll
Mississippi Senate polling averages on Oct. 28, in points
The fake poll’s share of each site’s Mississippi average
Fake poll’s share of the average, Oct. 23 and Oct. 28, 2026
| Election site | Oct. 23 | Oct. 28 |
|---|---|---|
| Polls vs. Odds | 86.9% | 86.9% |
| Who Shows Up | 96.5% | 34.0% |
MSR Decode traced two of those sites, Polls vs. Odds and Who Shows Up, to an older VoteHub data feed, a list that other websites download automatically. VoteHub dropped Wedgewood’s polls from its own averages, but its older feed still carried six of the firm’s Senate polls on Oct. 28.
Campaigns and a PAC Use the Numbers
Political campaigns and a political action committee used the survey’s numbers, both before and after it was exposed.
- The Colom campaign: On Oct. 16, Magnolia Tribune reported that Colom’s campaign cited the poll’s 4.3-point margin of error to call the race “tied.”
- The Congressional Black Caucus PAC: According to an online archive entry dated Oct. 21, the day after Wedgewood’s admission, the PAC sent a fundraising email with a graphic showing the fake poll’s 52%-48% figures. The email’s subject line said Colom was “UNDERWATER!” and it asked for donations toward a $120,000 goal for Black voter turnout.
Earlier in the cycle, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s Senate campaign in Michigan listed a fabricated Wedgewood result in a July fundraising email, as the outlet Hanmi Ilbo reported.
Prediction Platforms and Media Fallout
Kalshi, a prediction platform whose odds Polls vs. Odds uses, also left uncorrected content online. An Oct. 13 Kalshi News article on the Michigan Senate race cited a Wedgewood survey showing El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers, 53% to 47%. On Oct. 28, it still carried no correction.
After Wedgewood’s admission, Kalshi News published a response on Oct. 22 arguing that the fake polls barely moved Kalshi’s prices. An MSR Decode test of hourly prices on Kalshi and Polymarket broadly supports that claim. Across 19 Wedgewood releases, unusual price moves in the direction a poll pointed came up about as often as chance would produce: once on Kalshi and twice on Polymarket, never in the same race.
Who removed it, and the timeline
Who removed the Wedgewood polls, and who still shows them
Status on Oct. 28, 2026
| Site or publication | Status | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| The New York Times | Removed or excluded it | removed 15 Wedgewood polls (by Oct. 21) |
| Decision Desk HQ | Removed or excluded it | removed 17 Wedgewood polls (by Oct. 21) |
| Nate Silver’s forecast | Removed or excluded it | dropped the polls (Oct. 21) |
| FiftyPlusOne | Removed or excluded it | removed them from its averages (Oct. 20) |
| Wikipedia | Removed or excluded it | deleted the Mississippi poll (Oct. 20) |
| Scorvec | Removed or excluded it | dropped the Mississippi poll (Oct. 20) |
| Newsweek | Removed or excluded it | retracted its article about the poll |
| VoteHub’s own averages | Removed or excluded it | give every Wedgewood poll zero weight |
| VoteHub’s older data feed | Still showing it on Oct. 28 | still carries 6 Wedgewood Senate polls |
| Polls vs. Odds | Still showing it on Oct. 28 | fake poll is 87% of its Mississippi average |
| Who Shows Up | Still showing it on Oct. 28 | fake poll is 34% of its Mississippi average |
| PredictionEdge | Still showing it on Oct. 28 | fake poll is 1 of 7 polls in its average |
| Newsweek’s Oct. 15 newsletter | Still showing it on Oct. 28 | online edition still shows the result |
| Kalshi News’ Oct. 13 article | Still showing it on Oct. 28 | still cites a Wedgewood Michigan poll |
Timeline
October 2026
- Oct. 13Kalshi News cites a Wedgewood poll of Michigan’s Senate race.
- Oct. 14Wedgewood releases its Mississippi poll: Hyde-Smith 52%, Colom 48%.
- Oct. 15Newsweek’s newsletter pairs the poll with Kalshi’s 90% odds for Hyde-Smith.
- Oct. 16Magnolia Tribune reports that Colom’s campaign is calling the race tied.
- Oct. 20FiftyPlusOne reports the Mississippi data was fabricated. Wedgewood admits it is a fake firm.
- By Oct. 21The New York Times and Decision Desk HQ say they removed Wedgewood’s polls. Nate Silver drops them.
- Oct. 21A PAC fundraising email carries the fake poll’s numbers, by the archive’s date.
- Oct. 22Kalshi says the fake polls barely moved its markets.
- Oct. 28Three election sites still count the poll, and VoteHub’s older feed still carries it.