{
  "case": "ForecastEx publishes two trading deadlines for its 2026 House contracts",
  "evidence_as_of": "2026-11-01",
  "prepared_utc": "2026-11-01T05:45:52.682364+00:00",
  "record_scope": "Selected factual fields, capture hashes and reproduction references. Full raw captures are retained in the private research archive. This file is not a full raw-response archive.",
  "contract_mapping": [
    {
      "symbol": "HORC_1126_Democratic",
      "yes_conid": 762089343,
      "no_conid": 762089344
    },
    {
      "symbol": "HORC_1126_Republican",
      "yes_conid": 773659700,
      "no_conid": 773659707
    }
  ],
  "forecastex_contract_records": {
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    "captured_utc": "2026-11-01T05:13:07.747894+00:00",
    "sha256": "4dcd11b55c3b456694afc74e050a72dc45699cc502b31bcdd790db707905d489",
    "selected_records": [
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        "contract_id": "HORC_1126_Democratic",
        "product_id": "HORC",
        "question": "Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 general election?",
        "last_trade_date": "2027-01-04T15:00:00",
        "expiration_date": "2027-01-04T15:00:00",
        "exchange_spec_url": "https://data.forecastex.com/regulatory/HORCOTermsandConditions.pdf"
      },
      {
        "contract_id": "HORC_1126_Republican",
        "product_id": "HORC",
        "question": "Will the Republican Party win a majority in the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 general election?",
        "last_trade_date": "2027-01-04T15:00:00",
        "expiration_date": "2027-01-04T15:00:00",
        "exchange_spec_url": "https://data.forecastex.com/regulatory/HORCOTermsandConditions.pdf"
      }
    ],
    "linked_pdf_sha256": "853dcbda26dfec90453dc3b8b57c116900507aafac41e1741937da4147a1dfd2"
  },
  "ibkr_public_rules": [
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      "url": "https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/tws.proxy/public/forecasttrader/contract/rules?conid=762089343",
      "status": 200,
      "server_date": "Sun, 01 Nov 2026 05:31:10 GMT",
      "sha256": "c33b1b8c9dd9f1026f6e149b3efe8bb3d4aa945f656bce2a54cd3c9e2c65450c",
      "derived_times": {
        "last_trade_time_utc": "2027-01-04T21:00:00+00:00",
        "last_trade_time_cst": "2027-01-04T15:00:00-06:00",
        "last_trade_time_est": "2027-01-04T16:00:00-05:00"
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      "client_status_calculation": {
        "cutoff_minus_1ms": "marketOpen",
        "cutoff_equal": "marketClosed",
        "cutoff_plus_1ms": "marketClosed"
      },
      "calculation_scope": "Direct evaluation of published client comparison; not an observed order acceptance or rejection.",
      "selected_fields": {
        "market_name": "US House of Representatives Control",
        "measured_period": "Nov'26",
        "threshold": "Democratic",
        "last_trade_time": 1799096400,
        "product_code": "HORC",
        "market_rules_link": "https://data.forecastex.com/regulatory/HORCOTermsandConditions.pdf",
        "release_time": 1799096400,
        "payout_time": 1799103600,
        "exchange_timezone": "US/Central"
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    },
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      "status": 200,
      "server_date": "Sun, 01 Nov 2026 05:31:10 GMT",
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        "last_trade_time_cst": "2027-01-04T15:00:00-06:00",
        "last_trade_time_est": "2027-01-04T16:00:00-05:00"
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      "client_status_calculation": {
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        "cutoff_plus_1ms": "marketClosed"
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      "calculation_scope": "Direct evaluation of published client comparison; not an observed order acceptance or rejection.",
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      "server_date": "Sun, 01 Nov 2026 05:31:10 GMT",
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        "last_trade_time_cst": "2027-01-04T15:00:00-06:00",
        "last_trade_time_est": "2027-01-04T16:00:00-05:00"
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      "client_status_calculation": {
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        "cutoff_equal": "marketClosed",
        "cutoff_plus_1ms": "marketClosed"
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      "calculation_scope": "Direct evaluation of published client comparison; not an observed order acceptance or rejection.",
      "selected_fields": {
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        "measured_period": "Nov'26",
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      }
    },
    {
      "requested_conid": 773659707,
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      "status": 200,
      "server_date": "Sun, 01 Nov 2026 05:31:10 GMT",
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        "last_trade_time_cst": "2027-01-04T15:00:00-06:00",
        "last_trade_time_est": "2027-01-04T16:00:00-05:00"
      },
      "client_status_calculation": {
        "cutoff_minus_1ms": "marketOpen",
        "cutoff_equal": "marketClosed",
        "cutoff_plus_1ms": "marketClosed"
      },
      "calculation_scope": "Direct evaluation of published client comparison; not an observed order acceptance or rejection.",
      "selected_fields": {
        "market_name": "US House of Representatives Control",
        "measured_period": "Nov'26",
        "threshold": "Republican",
        "last_trade_time": 1799096400,
        "product_code": "HORC",
        "market_rules_link": "https://data.forecastex.com/regulatory/HORCOTermsandConditions.pdf",
        "release_time": 1799096400,
        "payout_time": 1799103600,
        "exchange_timezone": "US/Central"
      }
    }
  ],
  "ibkr_source_chain": [
    {
      "key": "forecasttrader_public_page",
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      "bytes": 5634,
      "sha256": "dc0e1bc877f497698dbe2b70b0a81532e903f83890c29666d93d9f55945e6db5",
      "request_utc": "2026-11-01T05:26:02.967636+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "forecast_client_1",
      "url": "https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/eventtrader/all.js?00e743f9",
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      "bytes": 736182,
      "sha256": "ec078b33ed6cb8dd0fe99a156a454b25d7de9ccbf24260b95e6395092f5ec749",
      "request_utc": "2026-11-01T05:26:06.458768+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "ibkr_module_map",
      "url": "https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/webui/fluidity-configuration/module-map.json",
      "status": 200,
      "bytes": 3643,
      "sha256": "73aa4530f3b2de270e05a25d6f649e27bf0a9b11d801e1602366697201908fad",
      "request_utc": "2026-11-01T05:28:42.470025+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "forecast_trader2",
      "url": "https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/webui/forecast.trader2/version/0.84.0/module/module.es.js",
      "status": 200,
      "bytes": 666,
      "sha256": "4bc855a82a5070db7100c3f4e5f9222828bc39af0bdcfae8355230891228407c",
      "request_utc": "2026-11-01T05:28:53.109664+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "forecast_trader2_impl",
      "url": "https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/webui/forecast.trader2/version/0.84.0/module/module-DqGLnr3g.js",
      "status": 200,
      "bytes": 2568074,
      "sha256": "206d26a5868b39c484285272fbbf565a19d1e115750a8c517a8ce9c081fb84e4",
      "request_utc": "2026-11-01T05:29:16.003599+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "forecast_trader2_english",
      "url": "https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/webui/forecast.trader2/version/0.84.0/module/en-DoXfskas.js",
      "status": 200,
      "bytes": 35321,
      "sha256": "bc7b3a35c5812bf24da644e4c8daf3e9cf25e0902187f5b49625a77554d064d1",
      "request_utc": "2026-11-01T05:32:41.957534+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "ibkr_event_rules",
      "url": "https://interactivebrokers.com/docs/web-api/api-reference/trading/trading-event-contracts/get-forecast-rules.md",
      "status": 200,
      "bytes": 6585,
      "sha256": "94a59b88c9bda04435d76cf61061f4ef660a9f4970c93111f2f45008a0838837",
      "request_utc": "2026-11-01T05:25:01.938064+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "ibkr_event_discovery",
      "url": "https://www.interactivebrokers.com/docs/web-api/trading/instrument-discovery/finding-event-contracts.md",
      "status": 200,
      "bytes": 13253,
      "sha256": "d24f331aa072488fb4f0be3f34b35fc287682be32cf1df96c6c2e2ee60e8f6db",
      "request_utc": "2026-11-01T05:24:37.175663+00:00"
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  "client_behavior": {
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    "url": "https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/webui/forecast.trader2/version/0.84.0/module/module-DqGLnr3g.js",
    "public_route_line": 53464,
    "request_line": 54922,
    "rules_panel_line": 70553,
    "status_line": 70656,
    "countdown_line": 70660,
    "description": "The panel requests the public contract-rules record, then compares last_trade_time in epoch milliseconds with its current client clock. It displays Market Open before the timestamp and Market Closed at or afterward, and counts down to the same timestamp.",
    "scope": "Market status and countdown only. No order-acceptance response was obtained."
  },
  "aries_catalogue": {
    "url": "https://api.aries.com/v1/predictions/events/HORC_1126/contracts",
    "sha256": "2c19ad2c12cdfc17d1fa8729ad71a53dab36354304606a8b5c1b7b7aca646ca7",
    "selected_contracts": [
      {
        "symbol": "HORC_1126_Democratic",
        "lastTradeDate": "2027-01-04T00:00:00Z",
        "expirationDate": "2027-01-04T00:00:00Z",
        "state": "ACTIVE",
        "tradable": true,
        "lastSyncedAt": "2026-10-31T10:18:45.341134Z"
      },
      {
        "symbol": "HORC_1126_Republican",
        "lastTradeDate": "2027-01-04T00:00:00Z",
        "expirationDate": "2027-01-04T00:00:00Z",
        "state": "ACTIVE",
        "tradable": true,
        "lastSyncedAt": "2026-10-31T10:18:46.955106Z"
      }
    ],
    "scope": "Only the January4 calendar date is used. The independently rendered Aries page supplies the 4PM Eastern clock; expected* timestamp serialization is not used to infer an additional time."
  },
  "calculation": {
    "written_default_last_trade": "2027-01-02T23:59:59-06:00",
    "written_default_resolution": "2027-01-04T07:00:00-06:00",
    "live_published_last_trade": "2027-01-04T15:00:00-06:00",
    "difference_seconds": 140401,
    "written_last_trade_to_default_resolution_seconds": 111601,
    "default_resolution_to_live_published_last_trade_seconds": 28800,
    "interpretation": "39 hours and one second between two published deadlines; not a measured customer lockout or loss."
  },
  "governance_scope": {
    "base_filing": {
      "id": "62300",
      "submitted": "2026-07-31",
      "stated_effective": "2026-08-14",
      "submission": "https://www.cftc.gov/filings/orgrules/rules07312613562.pdf",
      "clean_house": "https://www.cftc.gov/filings/orgrules/rules07312613572.pdf"
    },
    "later_product_terms_filings": 9,
    "general_rule_descriptions_since_august14": 36,
    "potentially_relevant_general_submissions_read": 6,
    "notice_inventory_pdf_count": 462,
    "finding": "No House-specific reconciliation found within the defined review. Not all attachments to all general filings were reread; no claim of exhaustive coverage of every communication."
  },
  "historical_test": "Retained exact 2024 House tape checks did not yield a qualifying after-cutoff trade. No executions cannot distinguish a closed market from one with no matching orders.",
  "disposition": {
    "established": "Conflicting official default written timetable and live published last-trade schedule. Current IBKR rules and status display use January4.",
    "unresolved": [
      "Which schedule ForecastEx enforces for order acceptance",
      "Whether an operative amendment or interpretation supersedes the written formula",
      "Whether the linked PDF is obsolete"
    ],
    "not_established": [
      "An unavailable advertised exit window",
      "A cutoff-related rejected customer exit",
      "Customer loss"
    ]
  },
  "actions": {
    "outreach_sent": false,
    "authenticated_account_access": false,
    "order_preview": false,
    "order_submission": false,
    "publication": false
  }
}